Business High School

The manager of a utility company in Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are seasonal, and the data on the quarterly loads in megawatts (MW) for the last 4 years are as follows:
Quarter
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
1
103.5
94.7
118.6
109.0
2
126.1
116.0
141.2
131.0
3
144.5
137.1
159.0
149.0
4
166.1
152.5
178.2
169.0
The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at 600 MW. Use the multiplicative seasonal method to develop the forecast for each quarter in year 5.

Answers

Answer 1

The manager of a utility company in Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are seasonal, and the data on the quarterly loads in megawatts (MW) for the last 4 years are given.

Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1 103.5 94.7 118.6 109.0 2 126.1 116.0 141.2 131.0 3 144.5 137.1 159.0 149.0 4 166.1 152.5 178.2 169.0. To use the multiplicative seasonal method, the first step is to compute the seasonal index for each quarter. This is done by calculating the average of each quarter over the four years and dividing each quarterly average by the overall average. The overall average is the total demand for all quarters of the last four years.

Thus, the overall average is (103.5 + 94.7 + 118.6 + 109.0 + 126.1 + 116.0 + 141.2 + 131.0 + 144.5 + 137.1 + 159.0 + 149.0 + 166.1 + 152.5 + 178.2 + 169.0) / 16 = 137.5 MW. The seasonal index for Quarter 1 is 103.5 + 94.7 + 118.6 + 109.0 / 4 / 137.5 = 0.768. Similarly, the seasonal indices for Quarters 2, 3, and 4 are 0.914, 1.069, and 1.249, respectively. The second step is to use the seasonal indices to adjust the quarterly data to remove the seasonal component. This is done by dividing each quarterly data point by the corresponding seasonal index.

The third step is to calculate the average of each quarter for the last four years, adjust each average by the seasonal index, and multiply each adjusted average by the estimated total demand of 600 MW. The results are the forecasts for each quarter in year 5. Thus, the forecasts for Quarters 1, 2, 3, and 4 are (103.5 + 94.7 + 118.6 + 109.0) / 4 / 0.768 * 600 = 107.4 MW, (126.1 + 116.0 + 141.2 + 131.0) / 4 / 0.914 * 600 = 148.0 MW, (144.5 + 137.1 + 159.0 + 149.0) / 4 / 1.069 * 600 = 159.3 MW, and (166.1 + 152.5 + 178.2 + 169.0) / 4 / 1.249 * 600 = 183.3 MW, respectively.

Answer: The forecasts for Quarters 1, 2, 3, and 4 are (103.5 + 94.7 + 118.6 + 109.0) / 4 / 0.768 * 600 = 107.4 MW, (126.1 + 116.0 + 141.2 + 131.0) / 4 / 0.914 * 600 = 148.0 MW, (144.5 + 137.1 + 159.0 + 149.0) / 4 / 1.069 * 600 = 159.3 MW, and (166.1 + 152.5 + 178.2 + 169.0) / 4 / 1.249 * 600 = 183.3 MW, respectively.

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Related Questions

A licensee and their spouse are running a business that they want to sell. The business contract is only under the spouse's name. Which answer is correct?A. The licensee must disclose their license B. Both the Spouse and Licensee have to sign. C. Only the Spouse can sign the contract D. They must list the property with their current broker.

Answers

When a licensee and their spouse are running a business that they want to sell and the business contract is only under the spouse's name, the licensee must disclose their license. This is the correct answer (Option A).

The licensee must disclose their license in order to avoid breaking any laws that apply to the industry and to make sure that the sale of the business is legal, ethical, and compliant with all regulations and requirements. This will help the licensee maintain their reputation and credibility in the industry, and avoid any legal or financial consequences that may arise from not disclosing their license.

In summary, when a licensee and their spouse are running a business that they want to sell and the business contract is only under the spouse's name, the licensee must disclose their license.

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Section Two – The implications of widespread insecure work
1000 words (+/- 10%)
· Why have many employers shifted away from standard (full-time, continuing) employment?
· What are the social and economic implications for workers engaged in insecure work?
· Does widespread insecure work have implications for the broader society and the economy?
· In what ways has COVID-19 shone a spotlight on the problems associated with insecure work?

Answers

Widespread insecure work, characterized by non-standard employment arrangements, has significant social and economic implications. It leads to worker vulnerability, income instability, and inequality. Insecure work hinders productivity and innovation, exacerbates social divisions, and has been spotlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing the need for stronger protections and support.

This shift away from standard, full-time, continuing employment has significant implications for workers, society, and the economy as a whole. This essay will explore the reasons behind the shift, analyze the social and economic implications for workers engaged in insecure work, examine its broader implications for society and the economy, and discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the problems associated with insecure work.

Shift away from standard employment:
There are several reasons why many employers have moved away from standard employment arrangements. First, it allows employers to have more flexibility in managing their workforce and adjusting labor costs based on fluctuating demand. Non-standard arrangements provide employers with greater control over staffing levels and enable them to adapt quickly to changes in the business environment. Second, it can lead to cost savings for employers as they are not required to provide the same level of benefits and protections to insecure workers as they would to full-time employees. Lastly, advancements in technology and the rise of the gig economy have facilitated the growth of platform-based work, where individuals work as independent contractors rather than as traditional employees.

Implications for workers:
Workers engaged in insecure work face numerous social and economic implications. In terms of social implications, insecurity and unpredictability in work arrangements can lead to heightened stress, anxiety, and a lack of stability in their personal lives. Insecure workers often experience limited access to employment benefits such as healthcare, retirement plans, and paid leave, leaving them more vulnerable to financial insecurity and hardship. Additionally, these workers may also face challenges in career advancement and skill development due to the transient nature of their employment.

From an economic perspective, insecure work often means lower wages and fewer hours, resulting in reduced income stability and a higher risk of poverty. Insecure workers are more likely to experience income volatility, making it difficult to plan for the future and meet basic needs. They may also lack access to social protections such as unemployment benefits, making them more susceptible to financial shocks. The lack of job security and limited bargaining power can also lead to exploitation and unfair working conditions.

Implications for society and the economy:
The prevalence of widespread insecure work has broader implications for society and the economy. From a societal standpoint, it can exacerbate income inequality and contribute to social stratification. Insecure work perpetuates a two-tiered labor market, where a segment of workers enjoys stable employment with benefits, while others are trapped in precarious and low-paid positions. This can lead to social divisions, reduced social cohesion, and increased societal tensions.

In terms of the economy, the rise of insecure work can hinder productivity and innovation. Insecure workers may be less motivated, have lower job satisfaction, and experience higher turnover rates, impacting overall productivity levels. Moreover, the lack of investment in training and skill development for insecure workers may lead to a skills gap and hinder long-term economic growth. Additionally, the reduced purchasing power of insecure workers can have negative implications for consumer spending and economic demand.

COVID-19 and the spotlight on insecure work:
The COVID-19 pandemic has shed a glaring light on the problems associated with insecure work. The crisis exposed the vulnerabilities faced by workers in non-standard employment arrangements, particularly those in industries heavily impacted by lockdown measures such as hospitality, retail, and gig work. Many insecure workers experienced sudden job losses, reduced income, and the absence of adequate social protections. The pandemic highlighted the need for stronger safety nets, improved working conditions, and enhanced social protections for all workers, regardless of their employment status.

Furthermore, the pandemic revealed the interdependencies within the economy and the risks associated with relying heavily on insecure work. The inability of insecure workers to afford

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